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The australian sharemarket and dollar had only been marginally higher at $50.75 yesterday, in a range of just over two US cents to one Euro. However the dollar has been hitting some highs of recent, and this could be good news for Australia's export industries.
"We are now in a situation where we have a $50.75 dollar index so it feels more like our dollar index has been undervalued. In the futures market they are expecting an upward price run, but that does not mean the dollar will come to the same dollar, dollar amount. So as they have a positive interest rate target and the dollar is undervalued to this point, that is enough. That has certainly helped us to drive a gain in the component," he said.
This is a significant move for the Australian dollar that will likely cause major concern for international traders.
'Selling at a loss'
Some other positive developments yesterday include a large rise in the US dollar against the euro and gold. These moves are the result of "buy" and "sell" markets, where speculators are buying and selling in an attempt to get their dollar-to-euro-to-Gold-to-USD price index closer to the US Federal Reserve's target.
"While both the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges have sold their in recent days, it is in the US where there have been large gains.
"The big gainer was, for the first time in a long time, the Australian dollar," he said. "They've done everything they could to make that happen, and this helps drive more of that up in the currency.
"There was a big rally on the market in the last few hours which, if you are really, really in a bear market, will be quite a strong reaction and it's going to create some big movement in the market."
But it isn't all about buying and selling. "It's also been a selling economy, there's also been some big declines, which is a worrying sign," he said.
He says it is "a pretty good day for the dollar... because the foreign exchange] markets, they have had a pretty low run over recent months".
The Australian dollar was at $52.50 at 9pm AEST today, up just four cents, a four per cent rise, and a 0.4 percent gain.
The Australian dollar's rally is one factor driving foreign assets out of the Australian dollar trade. There were just four Australian dollar futures contracts traded today, and more than a thousand contracts for gold and other foreign investment vehicles and commodities.
The decline in gold to $1,250 a (tАx ¤tАx °¬tАx t| tАx¬tё
Australias big banks most profitable
As shown in Table 9, the median profits for S&P 500 banks in 2013 were US$3.18 per share (compared with $1.92 for GE Capital, US$1.82 for JPMorgan Chase and US$1.48 for Bank of America).
Table 9: S&P 500 bank earnings by profitability of bank
S&P 500 bank profitability (purchased by shareholders) 2012 2012 2013 UK total $10,929.8 US$1,893.2 US$1,879.5 Total ВЈ16,957.6 ВЈ17,262.1 ВЈ17,049.0
Source: S&P data.
The share of banks in total assets is also more than twice as large as the share of households, representing a 25-fold increase. The share of banks' assets for investment is also over 50 times larger than for the other groups of households, from 24.3% of households' wealth in 2011 to 34.6% in 2013.
What does the data tell us?
These big banks are well placed to grow profits
For the period between 2011 and 2013, the top five banks in terms of their profits doubled while the bottom five saw their profits fall. All but four of the banks in the table above showed a significant recovery from 2011; the only exception is Bank of America, which is showing a strong recovery but its growth is not matching its share of US households.
The top five big banks - which accounted for over 90% of the US financial industry in 2008 - saw their profit growth rise by over 50% in 2013 over 2012.
In terms of assets, the banks are also well positioned to grow profits
Since 2009, the world's top five banks have seen share price growth greater than threefold and more than fourfold respectively, including:
US$19.15 billion in the stock market value of the top five banks, and US$21.82 billion of their market cap of US$24.0 billion.
of the top five banks, and of their market cap of of US$24.0 billion. US$4.75 billion in the UK market value of the top five banks.
Table 10 shows how the relative returns to shareholders of the top five large banks are defined. It is important to note that the returns to shareholders are not calculated according to shareholder value because profits of the banks are used to calculate dividends paid on shares and buybacks of assets and the size of assets is determined not by dividends, but by the size of the bank.
Table 10: US$ financial sector income share by size of bank